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Is It Really A Recession?

22136 new outlets announced ........

Is it really a Recession?

 *Dr. Kaneez Fatima, Director, Aravali Institute of Management Studies, Udaipur

**Mr. Arif Sheikh, COO(Shopping Malls)APMMC

 

Every now and then there are reports in media about the rate of growth in the retail sector.

However the following quotes and figures tell a different story:

As per the confirmed media reports in national dailies  at least 22136 new outlets have been announced by different retailers (List attached) mostly by the directors of listed companies. According to Retailers Association of India (RAI) "The organized retail sector will grow by 15% (double digit) in 2008-09". According to Technopak Advisors "Our estimates suggest modern retailing will grow by around 25% ( double digit) this fiscal" Commenting on the footfalls at the company outlets, Major brands director Kamal Kodak said, "There has been no decrease in footfalls across our brands. All brands have performed well and as compared to last year's figures, our sales figures this year have gone up by 15 - 20 per cent." India's leading flower retailer Ferns N Petals has claimed that it has seen the biggest growth this year. "With our outlets across the country and through the online service, we have seen 30 per cent growth in the retail sector and 80 per cent sales increase in the online service this year during Valentine's Day as compared to the corresponding sales in the last year. Apart from the growth which was seen during valentines, a growth of around 40 per cent is observed in the overall sale as compared to the last year," said Pawan Gadia, VP - Ferns N Petals.

A report by the global consultancy firm, AT Kearney said "The consumer spending in India has increased by an impressive 75 per cent in the last four years and will quadruple in the next 20 years." Moreover, India recently topped the Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence study, conducted by Nielsen, a market research company. The biannual report revealed that Indians are "the most optimistic lot globally who think that their country will be out of the economic recession in the next twelve months."

Despite the global economic slowdown, Indian retailers are still optimistic about the India growth story. Speaking on the issue, Mr Tarun Joshi, CEO and MD of Brand house Retails said "Fashion retail has not been impacted in a big way. Not even 0.5 per cent of the working population has been hit in India."

According to a joint study recently conducted by ASSOCHAM and KPMG, "The estimated annual growth of organized retail sector is 40 per cent. The size of the organized retail sector by 2010 is estimated to reach US$ 51 billion"

Where is the recession in Retail? There have been good sales (better than last year) on Diwali, Christmas and the extended period of discounts. Latest reports show increase in net sales in % age over ' Q3 07

Maruti Suzuki sold 79,190 cars last month, up 24 per cent from a year earlier (ET - March 3, 2009). Domestic sales of the SX4 and D'Zire sedans rose more than 300 per cent from year ago. The country's largest two-wheeler maker Hero Honda Motors Ltd (HHML), on March 1,2009 reported a 24 per cent jump in its total sale in the month of February, at 3,29,055 units, as compared to 2,65,431 units in the same month last year. Two-wheeler manufacturer TVS Motors announced a 13 per cent growth in its two-wheeler sales (ET - March1,2009)The Company's net sales rose to Rs 255.22 crore in the fourth quarter of 2008 from Rs 233.97 crore in the same quarter last year. Bata India announced it has registered a 45.44 per cent growth in consolidated net profit at Rs 59.05 crore for the fourth quarter ended December 31, 2008. The company's net sales rose to Rs 255.22 crore in the fourth quarter of 2008 from Rs 233.97 crore in the same quarter last year.  (ET - Feb. 27, 2009)

Inspite of all this optimism, paradoxically no new projects have been announced in the last few months and from the biggest mall in metros to the smallest mall in tier 2/3 cities are all on hold now. Soon the

LIST OF BRANDS & THEIR EXPANSION PLAN

S.No

Brand

Expansion Plan

  

No's of Outlet Opened

1

3i Infotect

plan to open 12500 store in india

 

12500

2

6Ten retail

to open 3,500 stores by 2011

 

3500

3

about u

 

 

1

5

AOK

 

 

1

6

Banana moom

10 store under franchisee model

 

10

7

Be

 

 

1

8

Bg.bodyguard

Work in MBOs & EBOs

 

 

9

Bharti Retail plans expansion

to open 30 stores in NCR

 

30

10

Big Apple

to add 35 new stores in Delhi

 

35

11

BIGFlix.com

the movie rental service belonging to Reliance BIG Entertainment has announced its partnership with the Kishore Biyani-led Future Group for movie rental

 

 

12

Blanco & Nero

 

 

1

13

Blocher Blocher Partners

 

 

1

14

Blue Tonic

 

 

1

15

Bosch system speciality store

100 store in next 2 year

 

100

16

Bossini

launches store in Jamshedpur

 

1

17

Bw!tch

launches first outlet in greater kailash

 

1

18

Canon

plans $10 mn investment for consumer, dealer financing

 

10

19

Celio*

 leading brand in the masculine ready-to-wear segment in France, has launched its flagship store at Courtyard, Saket in New Delhi. Spread over 2,500 square feet,

 

1

20

Cellucom

 to open 500 stores in India by 2009

 

500

21

Change

to enter in india

 

1

22

Choki Dhani

come in Mall format

 

1

23

Conerstore

to open 1500 stores in next 3 year

 

1500

24

Croma

opens at Phoenix Mills, Mumbai

 

1

25

Cure & care

 

 

1

26

De-grisogono

 

 

1

27

Dell

 

 

1

28

Delnapoonam wala

 

 

1

29

East West Ethnic Foods

 to open 10 outlets by March '09

 

10

30

Easy day

Multi format store across the country by 2015

 

1

31

Enquise salon

 

 

 

32

Espirit

expand in 21 cities with 100 stores by 2015

 

100

33

Etam

 

 

1

34

Ezma

 

 

1

35

fashion yantra

 

 

1

36

Femella Fashions

to open 50 stores by 2009-end

 

50

37

FI

 

 

1

38

Foresight Optiocals

 

 

1

39

Forest Essentials

 

 

1

40

freelook

 

 

1

41

Ganjam jewellers

 

 

1

42

Gigi

 

 

1

43

Giordano

opens 3 more stores in India

 

3

44

Greg Norman

to open 10 EBOs by March 2009

 

10

45

Gujarat amusement Industries

 

 

1

46

Hanung Retail

plans 50 new stores

 

50

47

Hatsoff

 

 

1

48

Hideout

 

 

1

49

Hindware Home retail

50 outlet

 

50

50

Hot spot store

move to 3tier cities

 

1

51

Hunny

 

 

1

52

Hypercity

arrives in pink city

 

1

54

ID (M&B brand0

launches footwear for kids

 

1

55

Intouch

 

 

1

56

Jaipur gems

 

 

1

57

Jashn

 

 

1

58

jealous 21

 

 

1

59

JJ Valaya

 

 

1

60

jortun Paints

open 300 outlet by 2010

 

300

61

Jumbo

to open about 60 to 80 stores in the next two to three years time

 

70

62

Juno funwear

 

 

1

63

Kaysons

 

 

1

64

Khanna jewellers

 

 

1

65

Kotharies

 

 

1

66

Krsala

 

 

1

67

Lancome

open new store in banglore

 

1

68

Lava

enter india under franchisee aggrement

 

1

69

Lecoanetthemant

 

 

1

70

Lino perros

 

 

1

71

Lite Bite

Come with food court on highways

 

1

72

Livtek

expansion plan in 2 & 3 tier cities

 

1

73

Lotte Mart

opens in Vietnam; 30 more by 2024

 

30

74

Madame

plans to open 100 outlets by 2010
05 Dec 2008

 

100

75

Magppie

to open 40 stores soon

 

40

76

Max Retail

opens 2nd store in Hyderabad

 

1

77

Me n Moms

 

 

1

78

Mega mart

 

 

1

79

Metro C&C

invest upto Rs. 9 billion, Plan to enter in punjab

 

3

80

Mohit

 

 

1

81

Mont Blanc

 

 

1

82

Moschino

 

 

1

83

Mx Food

expansion with frainchisee route

 

1

84

Nach Dr. Mauch

 

 

1

85

NAO

 

 

1

86

Nikon

to expand its wings in Indian market

 

1

87

Nya Nordiska

 

 

1

88

Octave

 

 

1

89

OmniaLuo

discloses its expansion plans

 

1

90

Orra

 

 

1

91

Peora

 

 

1

92

Piquadro

rolls out in India; 15 more stores by 2013

 

15

93

Planet Sports

to open 5 more stores by June'09

 

5

94

Pollo Lampero

target 10 store by 2012

 

10

95

Priknit Retails

targets 1000 stores by 2010

 

1000

96

Prinz

 

 

1

97

Quatana

 

 

1

98

Raymond's ‘Be Home'

opens in Delhi

 

1

99

Red Ginger

also enter in India

 

1

100

Reliance Autozone

launched its new store in Ghaziabad, Uttar Pradesh. Spread across 3,500 square feet of retail area,

 

1

101

Remanika

 

 

1

103

Rosebys

plans 240 stores by 2009-end

 

240

104

Rugiano

 

 

1

105

samaara.net

 

 

1

106

SFC

200 stores up to jan end

 

200

107

Sia Art Jewellery

 

 

1

108

Sleepin

 

 

1

109

Snowberry

plan to invest USD 50 million

 

10

110

SPAR

launches its maiden supermarket in Andhra Pradesh

 

1

111

Spencer's

to open a hypermarket in Nashik,

 

1

112

Stanza

 

 

 

113

Sunglass Hut

has entered Indian retail market with the launch of its maiden store in national capital. Further, the Italian eyewear chain also plans to launch 100 exclusive outlets by 2015.

 

100

114

Sunglass World

 

 

1

115

Tara ultimo

50 outlet in next 2 year

 

50

116

Taylor & Shroff

launches its wine in India

 

1

117

t-base

 

 

1

118

TBZ

 

 

1

119

The chennai Silks

 

 

1

120

The eyewear store

 

 

1

121

Time option

 

 

1

122

Tiny girl clothing

 

 

1

123

Tommy Hilfiger

to open 10 stores by 2009

 

10

124

Top style

 

 

1

125

Turtle ties-up with Lifestyle

plans to open 2 stores every month

 

2

126

Twisted

 

 

1

127

United retail

to open 80 outlet by 2012

 

1

128

Urban 10

Kidswear retailer Urban 10, the flagship brand of United Retail, plans to open eight stores by the end of 2009

 

8

129

US pizza

re-designs their association with franchisees

 

1

130

Vemb

 

 

1

131

Vishal Retail

Vishal Retail has opened two more stores under the brand name Vishal Megamart and Vishal Fashionmart in Uttar Pradesh and Punjab respectively

 

2

132

VJC

 

 

1

133

Wadhawan

to open 1,300 stores

 

1300

135

Wal-Mart

appoints Doug McMillon as new President, CEO

 

 

136

Woolworth

to launch 40 more store in India

 

40

137

Zapak Gameplex

open 150 outlet by March 09

 

50

138

Zima

 

 

1

139

Cinemax

launches 3-screen multiplex in Hyderabad

 

1

140

Dabur

India opens 'newu' store in Delhi

 

1

 

  

TOTAL

 

22136

situation will become one of low supply and more demand as 22136 new outlets will soon need a place to open (we doubt there is place on the high streets across the country to accommodate even 2200 outlets)

 

Those who trusted us and told the great story of Retail and being the biggest employers trading globally have migrated to various retail formats/services/retail/Real estate from other industries- the Trainees and employees at junior and middle levels are paying dearly for this negativity.  The prevalent negativity in the market is affecting everyone but none more so than the next generation. Most of us have seen only good times   but for the youngsters who have not contributed to the present situation, is it fair to make them suffer? Thousands of students who are pursuing retail course in some of the best B- schools with dreams in their eyes of making it big in the corporate world, is it right to leave them in the lurch by writing dooms day stories ? If we can't help them at least should not demotivate them either.

Why are we allowing the internal issues of our retail fraternity to fuel the negativity? Friends, there are 11.2 million outlets out there and there is enough space for all of us to grow even in this so called recession. If we can afford 11 million shops, we can very well afford 600 malls in this country; Let us make a concentrated effort to move ahead and spread positivity in the world.

 

 

About the Author

M.com, Ph.D, 16 yrs of experience split into academics and industry.Has presented papers in national and international conferences.

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